Originally published to LinkedIn | July 3, 2025
Contributors: Keren Perla, Ailsa Popilian
Driving competitiveness as markets shift
In the first part of this series, we made the case that in today’s landscape diversification into low-carbon opportunities is a no regret move for Alberta and identified three categories of opportunity where Alberta has a potential edge: clean energy enablers, exportable business solutions, and low-emission product plays.
But when it comes to markets right now two things are clear: the global race to form value chains for these emerging opportunities is underway, and bumpy market conditions are very much a reality. The economic race is heating up and while there’s points to be won, race conditions matter. Policy shifts, trade alliances, and investor confidence are all shaping the track ahead.
The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act spurred $132 billion in clean energy investments, but threats of rolling back or revoking incentives have already led to $15.5 billion in cancelled projects this year, and capital may start racing to other jurisdictions willing to fill the gap.
Canada is eyeing new trade deals beyond its usual teammate south of the border. The 2025 defence and trade pact with the EU signals a push to diversify, while Ottawa positions the nation as a strategic supplier of critical minerals. As Canada looks outwards, others are looking inwards. China’s tightening grip on critical mineral exports shows how fast trade winds can shift, even as calls grow for diplomatic negotiations to deepen ties.
The One Canadian Economy Act is laying the track for emerging national priorities like energy infrastructure, critical minerals processing, and hydrogen hubs to name a few. But these long-term commitments must co-exist with short-term uncertainty. As necessity is the mother of invention, could opportunity lie in the midst of this tension? With 16 opportunities at play, will Alberta get in the race or watch from the sidelines?
It bears repeating that global low-carbon investment reached a record 2.1 trillion USD last year and is set to increase by $100 billion this year alone. As part of this study, we looked at the market projections for the 16 sectors and industries outlined below. Together, they offer a glimpse of where momentum is building and a view of something bigger: how and where Alberta could compete in the global economy through to 2035.
“To compete Alberta needs to be locally minded, globally ambitious, laser-focused, and ready to put the pedal to the metal”
Getting on Track
We can think of Alberta’s ability to compete, and win, in emerging low-carbon opportunities like Formula 1. Everyone knows the big name teams like Ferrari because they’re consistently on the podium, and in Alberta, the biggest industries take pole position. But every team is there to compete, and those racing for “best of the rest” can reap real financial rewards, score points, and climb up the standings.
That’s the play for emerging sectors too. Some are already pulling ahead in their class and others are gearing up to make their move. But the decade ahead means running at least 10 long laps around the sun — that takes long-term vision and looking beyond the next stretch. Given the runway to develop these opportunities, Alberta can’t idle in the pit lane.
While market potential does not guarantee market share, it does give us a way of sizing up the track and the scale of the opportunities in the decade ahead. The 16 opportunities are sorted into three categories by potential market demand:
-
High: >$25B annually by 2035
-
Medium: $1–25B
-
Low: <$1B
Alberta’s low-carbon, resource-based opportunities can be assessed through multiple lenses, and our study offers ways to do just that. And while scale matters, it’s not the whole story. Even sectors in the “mid-pack” can create jobs, drive investment, and strengthen Alberta’s standings in the low-carbon economy. On top of this are spin-off benefits like revenue and energy security or reduced energy bills which are important factors not captured in the projections.
Zooming in
The market potential of 16 low-emission resource-based opportunities is outlined in the tables below and grouped into three categories segmented by market focus: provincial (Alberta market potential), North America, and global.
Clean energy enablers
Clean energy enablers can play an important role in decarbonizing industrial activity and meeting rising electricity demand across the province. While their markets are local, their impact is system-wide. Like the backbone of a high-performance team, these can form the foundation for Alberta’s broader economic and emissions-reduction opportunities — one of the reasons why the Lab launched Alberta’s Electricity Future as an innovation challenge.
With Alberta’s growing interest in data centres and AI, alternative fuels, and broader decarbonization, clean energy enablers underpin nearly every emerging sector while also being drivers for Alberta’s economic engine.
They also enable industrial users to reduce their emissions, which could increase the value of Alberta’s exports in markets with carbon tariffs or carbon border adjustment mechanisms, or where investors, lenders, insurers or consumers pay attention to embedded emissions.
Strategic clean energy projects can attract new industry to a region looking for accessible low-emission power, and customers need a power system that encourages innovation to minimize the rising cost of electricity.
Zooming out
Alberta has serious potential to compete in international markets as outlined below. These include business opportunities abroad where Alberta companies bring world-class expertise in resource-based technologies seeing rising demand, and product export opportunities that tap into high-growth sectors and integrate into global supply chains.
Business opportunities abroad: CCS tech/services export
With Alberta’s increasing reliance on CCS for large-scale decarbonization in its heavy-emitting industries, there’s more to be seized upon than capturing and storing carbon dioxide underground. Precisely because of this decarbonization potential, the Energy Futures Lab has supported the ecosystem since 2016 to develop the conditions needed for projects to get off the ground. This includes: advocacy for a tax credit that helped inform the 2021 federal Investment Tax Credits and one of four subsequent Clean Economy Investment Tax Credits; convening CCUS expertise to identify barriers and coordinate pathways to progressing projects; and a policy framework to attract investment into CCS and other future-fit hydrocarbon opportunities.
Given the groundwork industry has laid, it’s no surprise that other jurisdictions can benefit from Alberta’s know-how. Additionally, Canada is one of only 13 countries with operational CCS projects and is right behind China and the U.S. in terms of project count. The province boasts technical expertise across subsurface, infrastructure, and pipeline logistics with that expertise being spread across engineering firms and service companies as well as oil & gas producers — a competitive edge in exporting this know-how.
Investment in R&D has paid off with testing facilities like the Carbon Management Centre (CMC) bolstering the province’s credibility and global standing for ‘made-in-Alberta’ solutions. Beyond oil and gas, capturing, storing and sequestering CO₂ is a critical linchpin for steel, cement, chemicals and other heavy-emitters to meet climate targets.
Product export opportunities: minerals and metals production & processing
All eyes are on the critical minerals file at the moment, and Canada has signed onto key alliances to make sure we’re in the race. With interest growing around Canada’s reserves, the next few years will be pivotal to catalyze the opportunities beyond production, and build out a robust and highly-integrated value chain, with midstream processing and refining a priority.
Canada’s alliances with the EU, U.S., Japan, and Australia are positioning Alberta as a trusted, conflict-free supplier in critical minerals and materials supply chains. This translates into export potential; Canada’s (and by extension Alberta’s) high-standards could be a strategic advantage for markets seeking a sustainable and secure supply.
Canada’s potential as a critical minerals powerhouse has been something the Lab has been supporting for years through our work on establishing Canada’s battery value chain. From novel technology extracting Lithium from subsurface brines in Alberta, to refining BC ores, to recovering and repurposing metals and mine waste, the potential is immense. And the power train of this emerging value chain would come from growing the midstream to process raw minerals in-province/in-country. These different production methods can be mutually reinforcing, and Alberta’s expertise in turning raw commodities into refined, high-value products can seamlessly integrate into global supply chains.
The playing field
In the era of ‘nation-building projects’ there’s a tendency to focus only on the front-runners, but this isn’t a winner-takes-all sprint. Alberta’s competitiveness depends on what we choose to enable, harness and accelerate, and the province must play to its strengths.
Being in the race means having the agility to seize emerging opportunities, a chance to score points today, and build position for the bigger wins ahead.
This series, culminating in a final report, will offer multiple ways of gauging these opportunities: market potential, regional fit, competitive advantages, investment alignment, and resilience to policy shifts. While we can’t back every opportunity, we can catalyze those that make the most strategic sense.
To compete Alberta needs to be locally minded, globally ambitious, laser-focused, and ready to put the pedal to the metal.
